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Sweden v Poland : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 28th Sep, 19:45 BST, Friends Arena, Solna

Poland are away from home on Monday evening, as manager Jan Urban takes his men to visit Sweden and Graham Potter at the Friends Arena in the UEFA Nations League. We've got bespoke statistics for every major market, from from under 0.5 goals to over 5.5, including form and historical head to head (H2H) data. Predictions are produced from these, and the odds come straight from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

KickOff's predictive algorithm suggests there is a 80% chance of Sweden and Poland serving up a minimum of two goals in this UEFA Nations League clash. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and it would appear that the bookies are predicting the same. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at a best price of 1.22.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Sweden are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 51% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.85.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Sweden 50%	10/11 3%	-
Draw 23%	27/10 6%	-
Poland 26%	11/4 1%	-
Draw 1-1 11%	6/1	-
Sweden 2-1 10%	15/2	-
Sweden 1-0 9%	8/1 20%	-
Sweden 2-0 8%	9/1 11%	-
Poland 2-1 7%	12/1	-
Poland 1-0 6%	12/1 18%	-
Draw 2-2 6%	12/1 13%	-
Sweden 3-1 6%	14/1	-
Draw 0-0 5%	12/1 18%	-
Sweden 3-0 5%	16/1	-
Poland 2-0 4%	20/1 11%	-
Sweden 3-2 3%	22/1 12%	-
Poland 3-1 3%	28/1	-
Sweden 4-1 3%	28/1 15%	-
Poland 3-2 2%	33/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 57%	7/10 11%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 43%	11/10 11%	-
Home 1st Goal 52%	4/6	-
Away 1st Goal 45%	13/10 3%	-
No 1st Goal 3%	12/1 18%	-
BTTS - Yes 58%	8/13 10%	-
BTTS - No 42%	6/5 15%	-
BTTS - Home Win 26%	13/5 10%	-
BTTS - Draw 18%	7/2 5%	-
BTTS - Away Win 14%	11/2 7%	-
Home/draw 74%	1/4	-
Away/draw 50%	5/6 2%	-
Home/away 77%	2/7 3%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 80%	2/9 5%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 20%	3/1 14%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 35%	13/8 19%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 65%	4/9 8%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 18%	4/1 23%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 82%	1/6 5%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 8%	10/1 15%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 92%	1/20 1%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1/25 1%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	12/1 18%	-
Home DNB 67%	2/5	-
Away DNB 43%	7/4	-
Sweden win to nil 25%	5/2 3%	-
Poland win to nil 12%	6/1 8%	-
Sweden / Sweden 28%	2/1	-
Sweden / Poland 3%	28/1 15%	-
Sweden / Draw 6%	12/1	-
Draw / Sweden 17%	4/1	-
Draw / Poland 10%	15/2	-
Draw / Draw 14%	5/1 9%	-
Poland / Sweden 4%	20/1 9%	-
Poland / Poland 14%	5/1 8%	-
Poland / Draw 6%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sweden	2 - 1	Romania
Sweden	5 - 1	Tunisia
Sweden	2 - 2	Greece
Sweden	3 - 2	Poland
Sweden	1 - 1	Slovenia
Sweden	0 - 1	Kosovo
Sweden	0 - 2	Switzerland
Sweden	4 - 3	Algeria
Sweden	5 - 1	N Ireland
Sweden	6 - 0	Azerbaijan
Sweden	2 - 1	Slovakia
Sweden	3 - 0	Estonia
Sweden	0 - 3	Serbia
Sweden	1 - 0	Albania
Sweden	2 - 1	Estonia
Sweden	2 - 0	Estonia
Sweden	3 - 1	Moldova
Sweden	1 - 3	Austria
Sweden	4 - 1	New Zealand
Sweden	5 - 0	Azerbaijan

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Sweden	2 - 1	Romania
A	Sweden	0 - 3	France
A	Sweden	1 - 1	Japan
A	Sweden	1 - 5	Netherlands
H	Sweden	5 - 1	Tunisia
H	Sweden	2 - 2	Greece
A	Sweden	1 - 3	Norway
H	Sweden	3 - 2	Poland
A	Sweden	3 - 1	Ukraine
H	Sweden	1 - 1	Slovenia
A	Sweden	1 - 4	Switzerland
H	Sweden	0 - 1	Kosovo
H	Sweden	0 - 2	Switzerland
A	Sweden	0 - 2	Kosovo
A	Sweden	2 - 2	Slovenia
H	Sweden	4 - 3	Algeria
A	Sweden	2 - 0	Hungary
H	Sweden	5 - 1	N Ireland
A	Sweden	0 - 1	Luxembourg
H	Sweden	6 - 0	Azerbaijan

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sweden	3 - 2	Poland
Malta	2 - 3	Poland
Lithuania	0 - 2	Poland
Netherlands	1 - 1	Poland
Finland	2 - 1	Poland
Portugal	5 - 1	Poland
Croatia	1 - 0	Poland
Scotland	2 - 3	Poland
France	1 - 1	Poland
Wales	0 - 0	Poland
Faroes	0 - 2	Poland
Albania	2 - 0	Poland
Moldova	3 - 2	Poland
Czech Rep	3 - 1	Poland
France	3 - 1	Poland
Mexico	0 - 0	Poland
Wales	0 - 1	Poland
Netherlands	2 - 2	Poland
Belgium	6 - 1	Poland
Scotland	1 - 1	Poland

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Poland	0 - 0	Bosnia
H	Poland	2 - 2	Nigeria
H	Poland	0 - 2	Ukraine
A	Poland	2 - 3	Sweden
H	Poland	2 - 1	Albania
A	Poland	3 - 2	Malta
H	Poland	1 - 1	Netherlands
A	Poland	2 - 0	Lithuania
H	Poland	1 - 0	New Zealand
H	Poland	3 - 1	Finland
A	Poland	1 - 1	Netherlands
A	Poland	1 - 2	Finland
H	Poland	2 - 0	Moldova
H	Poland	2 - 0	Malta
H	Poland	1 - 0	Lithuania
H	Poland	1 - 2	Scotland
A	Poland	1 - 5	Portugal
H	Poland	3 - 3	Croatia
H	Poland	1 - 3	Portugal
A	Poland	0 - 1	Croatia

Goal Statistics

Sweden's fans will be hoping for goals on Monday evening, not least because Poland have conceded in each of their last 6 UEFA Nations League outings. A PG of 1.8 for G. Potter's side suggests that run should continue.

	Sweden 1st	Poland 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.8 goals	1.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 17% 1 30% 2 27% 3 16% 4+ 10% There is a 83% probability that Sweden will score 1 or more goals	0 30% 1 36% 2 22% 3 9% 4+ There is a 66% probability that Poland will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+6 Sweden’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-7 Poland’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.6 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

SWE

POL

better

view stats

Games scored	14		17
Failed to score	5		2
Scored first	8		9
Goals scored	37		29
Avg. goals scored	1.9		1.5
Avg. shots per game	9		11
Avg. shots per goal	5		7
Conversion rate for	20		13
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.6
KickOff rating		+3%

SWE

POL

18%

better

view stats

Games conceded	17		14
Clean sheets	2		5
Conceded first	11		10
Goals conceded	35		29
Avg. goals conceded	1.8		1.5
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		6
Conversion rate against	17%		17%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.5
KickOff rating		+18%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Sweden v Poland will show here when available.

Sweden UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
78	22	9	6
V Lindelöf	V Gyökeres	V Gyökeres	V Lindelöf

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
V Lindelöf DEF	81	3	1	6 -
A Isak FWD	61	18	8	5 -
V Gyökeres FWD	38	22	9	2 -
G Gudmundsson DEF	29			4 -
J Karlström MID	26		1	5 -
Y Ayari MID	26	5	4	3 -
C Starfelt DEF	20			1 -
D Svensson DEF	17			1 -
E Holm DEF	16	2	2	1 -
B Nygren MID	16	3	3	-
G Lagerbielke DEF	15	2	1	2 -
L Bergvall MID	15		2	2 -
A Bernhardsson FWD	15		1	1 -
H Ekdal DEF	14		1	2 -
V Johansson GLK	13			1 -
H Larsson MID	11			-
S Nanasi FWD	11	3	2	-
B Zeneli MID	10		1	1 -
E Stroud FWD	6			-
P Wålemark FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
22	56	9	16
V Gyökeres	A Isak	V Gyökeres	A Isak

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Gyökeres FWD	22	43	9	13
A Isak FWD	18	56	8	16
Y Ayari MID	5	12	4	9
V Lindelöf DEF	3	3	1	2
B Nygren MID	3	6	3	2
S Nanasi FWD	3	9	2	6
E Holm DEF	2	4	2	1
G Lagerbielke DEF	2	4	1	1
G Gudmundsson DEF		4		3
J Karlström MID			1	2
C Starfelt DEF		2
L Bergvall MID		2	2	2
A Bernhardsson FWD		5	1
H Ekdal DEF			1
H Larsson MID				1
B Zeneli MID		1	1	1
E Stroud FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
2974	41	181
V Lindelöf	G Gudmundsson	A Isak

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
V Lindelöf DEF	2974	34	177
G Gudmundsson DEF	1186	41	109
A Isak FWD	1026	22	181
Y Ayari MID	838	27	101
G Lagerbielke DEF	798	26	79
J Karlström MID	647	21	54
C Starfelt DEF	631	16	40
V Gyökeres FWD	588	10	136
H Ekdal DEF	576	14	42
D Svensson DEF	478	17	37
H Larsson MID	419	7	12
S Nanasi FWD	330	8	20
A Bernhardsson FWD	322	18	56
V Johansson GLK	316	1	5
L Bergvall MID	297	16	41
B Nygren MID	289	10	31
E Holm DEF	283	23	50
B Zeneli MID	230	6	16
E Stroud FWD	102	5	10
P Wålemark FWD	6		2

Poland UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
113	74	25	17
R Lewandowski	R Lewandowski	R Lewandowski	J Bednarek

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Lewandowski FWD	118	74	25	10 -
P Zielinski MID	105	16	17	5 -
J Bednarek DEF	75	1		17 -
S Szymanski MID	54	6	7	2 -
P Frankowski DEF	52	3	6	5 -
K Swiderski FWD	51	14	2	4 -
J Kiwior DEF	45	2	1	3 -
T Kedziora DEF	38	1	2	5 -
N Zalewski MID	36	4	6	5 -
J Kaminski FWD	31	3	4	1 -
M Cash DEF	26	4		5 -
B Slisz MID	24	1		7 -
T Puchacz DEF	15		2	4 -
M Skóraś FWD	15		2	-
K Urbański MID	11		3	-
M Bulka GLK	7			1 -
P Wisniewski DEF	7	1		3 -
K. Potulski DEF	2	1		-
M Żukowski FWD	2			-
N Wojtuszek DEF	1			-
W. Nowak MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
74	71	25	23
R Lewandowski	R Lewandowski	R Lewandowski	P Zielinski

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Lewandowski FWD	74	71	25	21
P Zielinski MID	16	32	17	23
K Swiderski FWD	14	35	2	9
S Szymanski MID	6	16	7	20
N Zalewski MID	4	13	6	10
M Cash DEF	4	12		3
P Frankowski DEF	3	8	6	13
J Kaminski FWD	3	19	4	5
J Kiwior DEF	2	7	1	6
J Bednarek DEF	1	6		1
T Kedziora DEF	1	2	2	2
B Slisz MID	1	1		2
P Wisniewski DEF	1	1
K. Potulski DEF	1
T Puchacz DEF			2	3
M Skóraś FWD		2	2	1
K Urbański MID		2	3	4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
3126	101	356
J Bednarek	S Szymanski	R Lewandowski

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Bednarek DEF	3126	60	236
P Zielinski MID	3103	47	193
J Kiwior DEF	2165	67	165
T Kedziora DEF	1585	50	111
R Lewandowski FWD	1443	35	356
P Frankowski DEF	1190	68	130
S Szymanski MID	937	101	210
N Zalewski MID	834	28	153
B Slisz MID	725	23	66
M Cash DEF	616	28	73
K Swiderski FWD	556	16	140
J Kaminski FWD	549	18	77
T Puchacz DEF	294	13	40
M Skóraś FWD	275	18	53
P Wisniewski DEF	250	9	24
K Urbański MID	184	5	20
M Bulka GLK	107		3
K. Potulski DEF	45		2
W. Nowak MID	26	1	6
M Żukowski FWD	2