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Estonia v Luxembourg : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 3rd Oct, 17:00 BST, A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

Jeff Strasser is aiming for a crucial away win in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday evening, as he takes his Luxembourg side to the A. Le Coq Arena to visit Estonia and Jürgen Henn. Statistics power the predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and switching between them delivers bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and much more besides. Odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to find out more.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Estonia 35%	-	-
Draw 25%	-	-
Luxembourg 40%	-	-
Draw 1-1 12%	-	-
Luxembourg 2-1 9%	-	-
Luxembourg 1-0 8%	-	-
Estonia 2-1 8%	-	-
Estonia 1-0 8%	-	-
Luxembourg 2-0 6%	-	-
Draw 2-2 6%	-	-
Draw 0-0 6%	-	-
Estonia 2-0 5%	-	-
Luxembourg 3-1 4%	-	-
Estonia 3-1 4%	-	-
Luxembourg 3-0 3%	-	-
Luxembourg 3-2 3%	-	-
Estonia 3-2 3%	-	-
Estonia 3-0 2%	-	-
Over 2.5 Goals 55%	-	-
Under 2.5 Goals 45%	-	-
Home 1st Goal 47%	-	-
Away 1st Goal 49%	-	-
No 1st Goal 3%	-	-
BTTS - Yes 58%	-	-
BTTS - No 42%	-	-
BTTS - Home Win 18%	-	-
BTTS - Draw 19%	-	-
BTTS - Away Win 21%	-	-
Home/draw 60%	-	-
Away/draw 65%	-	-
Home/away 75%	-	-
Over 1.5 Goals 78%	-	-
Under 1.5 Goals 22%	-	-
Over 3.5 Goals 32%	-	-
Under 3.5 Goals 68%	-	-
Over 4.5 Goals 16%	-	-
Under 4.5 Goals 84%	-	-
Over 5.5 Goals 7%	-	-
Under 5.5 Goals 93%	-	-
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	-	-
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	-	-
Home DNB 52%	-	-
Away DNB 58%	-	-
Estonia win to nil 17%	-	-
Luxembourg win to nil 20%	-	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

9 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

11 / 20

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Estonia	1 - 1	Moldova
Estonia	1 - 3	Italy
Estonia	0 - 0	Andorra
Estonia	0 - 1	Norway
Estonia	1 - 3	Israel
Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
Estonia	3 - 1	Azerbaijan
Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
Estonia	0 - 2	Austria
Estonia	1 - 1	Thailand
Estonia	0 - 2	Azerbaijan
Estonia	0 - 5	Sweden
Estonia	0 - 3	Belgium
Estonia	2 - 1	Malta
Estonia	2 - 0	San Marino
Estonia	0 - 0	Cyprus
Estonia	0 - 1	Wales
Estonia	2 - 0	Belarus
Estonia	0 - 1	N Ireland
Estonia	2 - 5	Belgium

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Estonia	0 - 2	Rwanda
A	Estonia	1 - 1	Kenya
A	Estonia	1 - 4	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 1	Moldova
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 0	Andorra
A	Estonia	0 - 5	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 1	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Israel
A	Estonia	3 - 2	Moldova
A	Estonia	1 - 2	Israel
A	Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
A	Estonia	0 - 0	Azerbaijan
H	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
H	Estonia	3 - 1	Azerbaijan
A	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
H	Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
A	Estonia	0 - 4	Switzerland
A	Estonia	1 - 2	Finland
A	Estonia	1 - 5	Poland

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Albania	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Malta	0 - 2	Luxembourg
N Ireland	1 - 0	Luxembourg
Slovakia	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Germany	4 - 0	Luxembourg
Switzerland	3 - 1	Luxembourg
Belarus	1 - 1	Luxembourg
Bulgaria	0 - 0	Luxembourg
N Ireland	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Belgium	3 - 0	Luxembourg
France	3 - 0	Luxembourg
Georgia	2 - 0	Luxembourg
Liechtenstein	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Iceland	1 - 1	Luxembourg
Portugal	9 - 0	Luxembourg
Bosnia	0 - 2	Luxembourg
Slovakia	0 - 0	Luxembourg
Turkey	3 - 3	Luxembourg
Faroes	0 - 1	Luxembourg
Lithuania	0 - 2	Luxembourg

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Albania
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Italy
H	Luxembourg	3 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	2 - 0	Malta
A	Luxembourg	0 - 1	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Germany
A	Luxembourg	0 - 2	Slovakia
A	Luxembourg	0 - 4	Germany
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovakia
H	Luxembourg	1 - 3	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 0	Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Slovenia
A	Luxembourg	1 - 3	Switzerland
H	Luxembourg	1 - 0	Sweden
H	Luxembourg	2 - 2	N Ireland
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Bulgaria
A	Luxembourg	1 - 1	Belarus
A	Luxembourg	0 - 0	Bulgaria
H	Luxembourg	0 - 1	Belarus
A	Luxembourg	0 - 2	N Ireland

Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for Estonia of late. It has been 9 UEFA Nations League matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.4 suggests they'll struggle to end that run on Saturday evening against Luxembourg.

Luxembourg's fans will be hoping for goals on Saturday evening, not least because Estonia have conceded in each of their last 5 UEFA Nations League games. A PG of 1.5 for J. Strasser's side suggests that run should continue.

	Estonia 2nd	Luxembourg 4th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.4 goals	1.5 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 25% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 60% probability that Estonia will score no more than 1 goal	0 22% 1 33% 2 25% 3 13% 4+ There is a 78% probability that Luxembourg will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-37 Estonia have scored 37% fewer goals at home than predicted	-40 Luxembourg have scored 40% fewer goals when away than predicted
	0.8 average goals scored	0.8 average goals scored
	1.7 conceded	1.7 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

38%

better

EST

LUX

view stats

Games scored	10		6
Failed to score	10		12
Scored first	6		2
Goals scored	14		7
Avg. goals scored	0.7		0.4
Avg. shots per game	5		6
Avg. shots per goal	8		18
Conversion rate for	13		6
Avg. XG for	0.7		0.7
KickOff rating		+38%

EST

LUX

23%

better

view stats

Games conceded	18		14
Clean sheets	2		4
Conceded first	12		14
Goals conceded	44		25
Avg. goals conceded	2.2		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	13		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		7
Conversion rate against	17%		14%
Avg. XG against	2.5		1.5
KickOff rating		+23%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Estonia v Luxembourg will show here when available.

Estonia UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
76	28	28	24
K Mets	M Poom	M Poom	K Mets

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
K Mets DEF	80		2	24 -
H Anier FWD	78	18	3	13 -
M Käit MID	57	8	3	8 -
K Hein GLK	44			2 -
M Kuusk DEF	39			7 -
M Paskotsi DEF	39	1		8 -
M Miller MID	34	1	1	12 1
M Poom MID	33	28	28	2 -
R Peetson DEF	25	2	1	6 -
M Soomets MID	22		2	4 -
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	19		2	2 -
M Ainsalu MID	19		2	1 -
K Palumets MID	18	1	3	5 -
A Tamm FWD	18	2	1	3 -
F Liivak DEF	17	2		2 -
M Igonen GLK	13			-
R Saarma FWD	13	1	1	1 -
P Kristal MID	12		1	2 -
E Tougjas DEF	9			-
J Saliste DEF	8			1 -
K Vallner GLK	5			1 -
T Tammik DEF	2	1		-
K. Mustmaa FWD	2			-
M Mannilaan FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
28	18	28	4
M Poom	H Anier	M Poom	M Käit

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Poom MID	28	4	28	4
H Anier FWD	18	18	3	2
M Käit MID	8	11	3	4
R Peetson DEF	2	5	1
A Tamm FWD	2	6	1	3
F Liivak DEF	2	2		1
M Paskotsi DEF	1	2
M Miller MID	1	1	1	1
K Palumets MID	1	2	3	3
R Saarma FWD	1	2	1
T Tammik DEF	1
K Mets DEF		2	2	1
M Kuusk DEF				1
M Soomets MID			2
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF		1	2	4
M Ainsalu MID		2	2	2
P Kristal MID			1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1966	70	180
K Mets	M Käit	M Käit

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
K Mets DEF	1966	37	129
K Hein GLK	1280	1	16
M Paskotsi DEF	1140	34	94
M Käit MID	1102	70	180
M Kuusk DEF	974	35	116
R Peetson DEF	461	31	78
M Poom MID	393	20	40
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	377	10	37
M Soomets MID	370	35	65
H Anier FWD	311	9	47
M Miller MID	311	23	53
M Ainsalu MID	299	11	37
K Palumets MID	267	17	38
M Igonen GLK	197		2
J Saliste DEF	137	13	21
E Tougjas DEF	103	4	10
A Tamm FWD	90	7	46
P Kristal MID	80	7	22
F Liivak DEF	72	8	28
R Saarma FWD	52	6	13
K Vallner GLK	50
K. Mustmaa FWD	8	1	1

Luxembourg UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
104	16	11	19
L Jans	D Sinani	D Sinani	L Barreiro

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Jans DEF	108	1	2	18 -
D Sinani MID	80	16	11	14 1
A Moris GLK	79		1	3 -
L Barreiro MID	71	2	5	19 -
D Carlson DEF	67		2	15 1
F Bohnert DEF	59	1	4	12 -
V Thill MID	55	5	6	12 -
V Thill MID	50	3	2	5 1
S Thill MID	45	2		-
M Martins DEF	41	3	1	7 -
E Mahmutovic DEF	39			9 -
M Olesen MID	39	2	1	6 -
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	15	1		2 -
V Selimovic DEF	13	1		7 2
E Dzogovic DEF	13			2 -
T Rupil MID	12			1 -
A. Dardari FWD	12	1		-
E Veiga DEF	10			1 -
T Cardoso GLK	7			-
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	4			1 -
J Pereira FWD	3			-
F. Miguel MID	1			-
H. Kadamani FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
16	36	11	14
D Sinani	D Sinani	D Sinani	D Sinani

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
D Sinani MID	16	36	11	14
V Thill MID	5	19	6	4
V Thill MID	3	14	2	3
M Martins DEF	3	3	1	2
L Barreiro MID	2	11	5	8
S Thill MID	2	1		3
M Olesen MID	2	7	1	3
L Jans DEF	1	5	2	4
F Bohnert DEF	1	1	4	4
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	1	4		1
V Selimovic DEF	1
A. Dardari FWD	1	5		1
A Moris GLK			1	1
D Carlson DEF		1	2	1
T Rupil MID				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
2250	106	304
D Carlson	L Barreiro	L Barreiro

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
D Carlson DEF	2250	76	228
A Moris GLK	2037	2	30
L Jans DEF	1910	71	188
L Barreiro MID	1895	106	304
D Sinani MID	1835	48	180
E Mahmutovic DEF	904	34	76
V Thill MID	889	52	150
V Thill MID	809	38	90
M Olesen MID	693	17	59
M Martins DEF	639	15	57
F Bohnert DEF	604	37	97
S Thill MID	460	14	33
V Selimovic DEF	318	7	23
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz MID	227	2	11
A. Dardari FWD	143	8	34
E Dzogovic DEF	140	14	29
T Cardoso GLK	121		3
T Rupil MID	38	3	7
E Veiga DEF	29	1	4
J Pereira FWD	13		1
F. Miguel MID	5		1
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos MID	4		1
H. Kadamani FWD	4	2	4