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France v Italy : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Parc des Princes, Paris

the Parc des Princes masses welcome Italy's travelling contingent on Friday evening, as Didier Deschamps's France clash with Luciano Spalletti's team in the UEFA Nations League. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting given to top teams. All the stats and graphics are tailored for the selected market. Head-to-head statistics for this fixture are also given if there are are enough previous meetings. Odds are provided straight from from leading bookmakers.

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The last International UEFA Nations League meeting between France and Italy was on Friday 6th September 2024
International UEFA Nations League
September 6th 2024
France 1
3 Italy
 
B. Barcola 1'30' F. Dimarco
51' D. Frattesi
74' G. Raspadori
 
FRA
ITA
Shots On
3
6
Shots Off
5
3
Corners
2
5
Possession
54%
46%
Fouls
12
10
Yellow/red cards
1/0
1/0
 
FranceItaly
 
M. Maignan
I. Konaté
T. Hernández
J. Clauss (J. Koundé 77')
W. Saliba
Y. Fofana (K. Kone 58')
N. Kanté (W. Zaire Emery 77')
K. Mbappé
B. Barcolafootball icon
A. Griezmann (M. Thuram 77')
M. Olise (O. Dembélé 58')
G. Donnarumma
(M. Brescianini 81') football iconF. Dimarco
G. Di Lorenzo
A. Bastoni
A. Cambiaso
(A. Buongiorno 71') R. Calafiori
(G. Raspadori 46') L. Pellegrini
(I. Udogie 61') football iconD. Frattesi
S. Tonali
S. Ricci
(M. Kean 81') M. Retegui
Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We are making over 1.5 goals our best tip on this match, meaning that the sides will score 2 goals or more between them during the standard 90 mins. Both France and Italy's recent form stats suggest things will go that way, while their head-to-head (H2H) record is pointing in the same direction too. The bookies make it their favoured prediction in this market too, available at 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think France are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 58% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.65.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
France
58%
-13/20
3%
Draw
22%
-13/5
8%
Italy
21%
-7/2
6%
Draw 1-1
10%
-6/1
France 2-1
10%
-7/1
7%
France 1-0
9%
-11/2
France 2-0
9%
-13/2
France 3-1
7%
-11/1
France 3-0
6%
-10/1
Italy 2-1
6%
-12/1
Draw 2-2
5%
-14/1
15%
Italy 1-0
5%
-11/1
9%
Draw 0-0
5%
-17/2
6%
France 3-2
4%
-20/1
11%
France 4-1
3%
-20/1
France 4-0
3%
-20/1
11%
Italy 2-0
3%
-20/1
11%
Italy 3-1
2%
-28/1
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
-17/20
Under 2.5 Goals
40%
-17/20
BTTS - Yes
58%
-17/20
BTTS - No
42%
-5/6
1%
BTTS - Home Win
29%
-13/5
3%
BTTS - Draw
17%
-4/1
BTTS - Away Win
12%
-15/2
Home/draw
79%
-2/11
1%
Away/draw
42%
-23/20
Home/away
78%
-1/4
Over 1.5 Goals
81%
-2/7
Under 1.5 Goals
19%
-12/5
Over 3.5 Goals
37%
-21/10
Under 3.5 Goals
63%
-1/3
Over 4.5 Goals
20%
-5/1
4%
Under 4.5 Goals
80%
-1/8
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
9%
-11/1
9%
Under 5.5 Goals
91%
-1/33
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
-1/20
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
-17/2
Home DNB
73%
-1/4
Away DNB
36%
-13/5
3%
France / France
31%
-8/5
France / Italy
2%
-33/1
17%
France / Draw
5%
-14/1
15%
Draw / France
18%
-17/5
2%
Draw / Italy
8%
-9/1
5%
Draw / Draw
15%
-9/2
5%
Italy / France
4%
-20/1
11%
Italy / Italy
11%
-13/2
Italy / Draw
5%
-14/1
15%
bet365
Match Predictor Pro
Your ultimate betting assistant
Try it now
Win / draw / win form
France
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
54
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
15
D
2
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
France1 - 0Belgium
France1 - 1Poland
France0 - 0Canada
France3 - 0Luxembourg
France3 - 2Chile
France0 - 2Germany
France14 - 0Gibraltar
France4 - 1Scotland
France2 - 0Ireland
France1 - 0Greece
France4 - 0Netherlands
France2 - 0Morocco
France3 - 1Poland
France2 - 1Denmark
France4 - 1Australia
France2 - 0Austria
France0 - 1Croatia
France1 - 2Denmark
France5 - 0South Africa
France2 - 1Cote d'Ivoire
Goals: Scored
44
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
8 / 20
Clean sheets
12 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
Draw
5
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AFrance1 - 2Spain
AFrance0 - 0Portugal
HFrance1 - 0Belgium
HFrance1 - 1Poland
AFrance0 - 0Netherlands
AFrance1 - 0Austria
HFrance0 - 0Canada
HFrance3 - 0Luxembourg
HFrance3 - 2Chile
HFrance0 - 2Germany
AFrance2 - 2Greece
HFrance14 - 0Gibraltar
HFrance4 - 1Scotland
AFrance2 - 1Netherlands
AFrance1 - 2Germany
HFrance2 - 0Ireland
HFrance1 - 0Greece
AFrance3 - 0Gibraltar
AFrance1 - 0Ireland
HFrance4 - 0Netherlands
Italy
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
8 / 20
Clean sheets
12 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
9
Draw
7
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Switzerland2 - 0Italy
Croatia1 - 1Italy
Spain1 - 0Italy
Ecuador0 - 2Italy
Ukraine0 - 0Italy
England3 - 1Italy
Macedonia1 - 1Italy
Malta0 - 2Italy
Hungary0 - 2Italy
Germany5 - 2Italy
England0 - 0Italy
Turkey2 - 3Italy
N Ireland0 - 0Italy
Switzerland0 - 0Italy
Belgium1 - 2Italy
Turkey0 - 3Italy
Lithuania0 - 2Italy
Bulgaria0 - 2Italy
Bosnia0 - 2Italy
Poland0 - 0Italy
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AItaly0 - 2Switzerland
AItaly1 - 1Croatia
AItaly0 - 1Spain
HItaly2 - 1Albania
HItaly1 - 0Bosnia
HItaly0 - 0Turkey
AItaly2 - 0Ecuador
HItaly2 - 1Venezuela
AItaly0 - 0Ukraine
HItaly5 - 2Macedonia
AItaly1 - 3England
HItaly4 - 0Malta
HItaly2 - 1Ukraine
AItaly1 - 1Macedonia
AItaly2 - 0Malta
HItaly1 - 2England
AItaly2 - 0Hungary
HItaly1 - 0England
AItaly2 - 5Germany
AItaly0 - 0England
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at France since 2000
France
Italy
Goals: Scored
4
4
Games: Scored
2 / 3
3 / 3
Clean sheets
0 / 3
1 / 3
FRA
1
D
1
ITA
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT France
0 - 2Italy
France3 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Italy since 2006
Italy
France
Goals: Scored
1
1
Games: Scored
1 / 2
1 / 2
Clean sheets
1 / 2
1 / 2
D
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Italy
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Goal Statistics

France's defensive record is very strong, D. Deschamps's men having conceded 1 or less in 7 consecutive UEFA Nations League matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Italy makes sense in this context.

France Italy
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.0
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
14%
1
27%
2
27%
3
18%
4+
14%
There is a 86% probability that France will score 1 or more goals
0
33%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 70% probability that Italy will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
=0
France’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
=0
Italy’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.7
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
0.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/274959/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
France
PG (predicted goals)
Italy
2
1.1
Attack rating
18%
better
FRA
ITA
view stats
Games scored16
15
Failed to score4
5
Scored first13
11
Goals scored44
29
Avg. goals scored2.2
1.5
Avg. shots per game13
10
Avg. shots per goal6
7
Conversion rate for16
14
Avg. XG for1.5
0.9
KickOff rating
+18%
Defence rating
23%
better
FRA
ITA
view stats
Games conceded8
11
Clean sheets12
9
Conceded first4
6
Goals conceded13
20
Avg. goals conceded0.7
1
Avg. shots/game conceded5
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
8
Conversion rate against12%
12%
Avg. XG against1
1.3
KickOff rating
+23%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between France v Italy will show here when available.

France UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
2112
M Maignan B BarcolaN Kanté M Koné
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Maignan  GLK2
-
J Clauss  DEF1
-
I Konaté DEF1
-
W Saliba DEF2
-
T Hernández DEF1
-
Y Fofana MID2
-
N Kanté  MID21
-
M Olise MID2
-
A Griezmann MID2
-
B Barcola MID21
-
K Mbappé FWD2
-
Subs
B Samba GLK
-
A Areola GLK
-
L Digne DEF1
1
-
D Upamecano DEF1
-
J Koundé DEF2
-
M Koné MID2
2
-
M Guendouzi MID1
-
W Zaïre-Emery MID1
-
M Thuram FWD2
-
O Dembélé FWD211
-
R Muani FWD11
-
Italy UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
2211
G DonnarummaD FrattesiS TonaliM Retegui
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
G Donnarumma GLK2
-
G Lorenzo DEF1
-
A Bastoni DEF2
-
R Calafiori DEF1
-
A Cambiaso MID2
-
D Frattesi MID22
-
S Ricci MID2
-
S Tonali MID21
-
F Dimarco MID211
-
L Pellegrini MID1
-
M Retegui FWD21
1
-
Subs
G Vicario GLK
-
A Meret GLK
-
A Buongiorno DEF2
-
F Gatti DEF1
1
-
R Bellanova DEF1
-
D Udogie DEF21
-
C Okoli DEF
-
M Brescianini MID2
-
N Fagioli MID
-
M Zaccagni MID1
-
M Kean FWD21
-
G Raspadori FWD211
-
International UEFA Nations League match betting previews, predictions and odds