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Iceland v Estonia : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 26th Sep, 17:00 BST, Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík

Iceland and Estonia take on one another at the Laugardalsvöllur on Saturday evening, with both Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson and Jürgen Henn aiming for victory in the UEFA Nations League. UEFA Nations League statistics are the backbone of the predictions you'll find below, with head-to-head history included too. It's all on this page, with data visualisations and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers available for seventeen major betting markets via the tabs.

Best Tip: Iceland to win

A UEFA Nations League victory in front of their own fans for Arnar Bergmann Gunnlaugsson's Iceland team win in the win / draw / win market is what we're predicting. Stats suggest they're in strong form across a number of key metrics, and they should have too much for their visitors. The odds from the bookmakers suggest so too, and when that happens you've got a pretty compelling case. A Iceland win is the bet we'd suggest, but we wouldn't expect a whitewash.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Iceland are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 76% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.29.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Iceland 75%	2/7 3%	-
Draw 16%	17/4 17%	-
Estonia 9%	9/1 18%	-
Iceland 2-0 13%	5/1	-
Iceland 1-0 11%	6/1 17%	-
Iceland 3-0 11%	13/2 6%	-
Iceland 2-1 9%	9/1 5%	-
Draw 1-1 8%	9/1 11%	-
Iceland 3-1 7%	11/1 8%	-
Iceland 4-0 6%	11/1 20%	-
Draw 0-0 5%	11/1 9%	-
Iceland 4-1 4%	20/1 9%	-
Estonia 1-0 3%	20/1 11%	-
Draw 2-2 3%	22/1	-
Iceland 5-0 3%	22/1 21%	-
Estonia 2-1 3%	28/1 12%	-
Iceland 3-2 2%	33/1	-
Iceland 5-1 2%	33/1 17%	-
Over 2.5 Goals 58%	7/10 8%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 42%	11/10 8%	-
Home 1st Goal 63%	3/10 2%	-
Away 1st Goal 34%	11/4 4%	-
No 1st Goal 3%	11/1 9%	-
BTTS - Yes 44%	5/4	-
BTTS - No 56%	4/7	-
BTTS - Home Win 29%	5/2 7%	-
BTTS - Draw 11%	6/1	-
BTTS - Away Win 4%	18/1 12%	-
Home/draw 91%	1/33 2%	-
Away/draw 25%	5/2 8%	-
Home/away 84%	1/7 3%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 80%	1/5 4%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 20%	10/3 15%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 36%	13/8 19%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 64%	4/9 8%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 19%	7/2 18%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 81%	1/6 4%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 9%	7/1 11%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 91%	1/16 2%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1/25 2%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	8/1 18%	-
Home DNB 86%	1/14 4%	-
Away DNB 20%	13/2 25%	-
Iceland win to nil 46%	5/6 9%	-
Estonia win to nil 5%	16/1 31%	-
Iceland / Iceland 46%	4/5 8%	-
Iceland / Estonia 2%	50/1	-
Iceland / Draw 4%	20/1	-
Draw / Iceland 21%	3/1	-
Draw / Estonia 4%	18/1 27%	-
Draw / Draw 11%	13/2 15%	-
Estonia / Iceland 4%	22/1	-
Estonia / Estonia 5%	16/1 13%	-
Estonia / Draw 4%	22/1 10%	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Iceland	2 - 2	France
Iceland	3 - 5	Ukraine
Iceland	5 - 0	Azerbaijan
Iceland	1 - 3	Kosovo
Iceland	2 - 4	Turkey
Iceland	2 - 2	Wales
Iceland	2 - 0	Montenegro
Iceland	4 - 0	Liechtenstein
Iceland	1 - 1	Luxembourg
Iceland	1 - 0	Bosnia
Iceland	0 - 1	Portugal
Iceland	1 - 2	Slovakia
Iceland	1 - 1	Estonia
Iceland	2 - 2	Israel
Iceland	1 - 1	Albania
Iceland	1 - 5	South Korea
Iceland	1 - 1	Uganda
Iceland	4 - 0	Liechtenstein
Iceland	1 - 1	Armenia
Iceland	0 - 4	Germany

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Iceland	0 - 3	Argentina
A	Iceland	0 - 1	Japan
A	Iceland	1 - 1	Haiti
A	Iceland	2 - 2	Canada
A	Iceland	0 - 4	Mexico
A	Iceland	0 - 2	Ukraine
A	Iceland	2 - 0	Azerbaijan
H	Iceland	2 - 2	France
H	Iceland	3 - 5	Ukraine
A	Iceland	1 - 2	France
H	Iceland	5 - 0	Azerbaijan
A	Iceland	0 - 1	N Ireland
A	Iceland	3 - 1	Scotland
H	Iceland	1 - 3	Kosovo
A	Iceland	1 - 2	Kosovo
A	Iceland	1 - 4	Wales
A	Iceland	2 - 0	Montenegro
H	Iceland	2 - 4	Turkey
H	Iceland	2 - 2	Wales
A	Iceland	1 - 3	Turkey

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Rwanda	2 - 0	Estonia
Kenya	1 - 1	Estonia
Norway	4 - 1	Estonia
Italy	5 - 0	Estonia
Moldova	2 - 3	Estonia
Israel	2 - 1	Estonia
Slovakia	1 - 0	Estonia
Azerbaijan	0 - 0	Estonia
Sweden	3 - 0	Estonia
Switzerland	4 - 0	Estonia
Finland	2 - 1	Estonia
Poland	5 - 1	Estonia
Sweden	2 - 1	Estonia
Sweden	2 - 0	Estonia
Belgium	5 - 0	Estonia
Azerbaijan	1 - 1	Estonia
Austria	2 - 1	Estonia
Hungary	1 - 0	Estonia
Finland	0 - 1	Estonia
Iceland	1 - 1	Estonia

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

10 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

10 / 20

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Estonia	0 - 2	Rwanda
A	Estonia	1 - 1	Kenya
A	Estonia	1 - 4	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 1	Moldova
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 0	Andorra
A	Estonia	0 - 5	Italy
H	Estonia	0 - 1	Norway
H	Estonia	1 - 3	Israel
A	Estonia	3 - 2	Moldova
A	Estonia	1 - 2	Israel
A	Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
A	Estonia	0 - 0	Azerbaijan
H	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
H	Estonia	3 - 1	Azerbaijan
A	Estonia	0 - 3	Sweden
H	Estonia	0 - 1	Slovakia
A	Estonia	0 - 4	Switzerland
A	Estonia	1 - 2	Finland
A	Estonia	1 - 5	Poland

Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.5 is decent for Iceland in their clash with Estonia, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 20 consecutive UEFA Nations League games.

An absolutely dreadful PG of just 0.7 should cause concerns for Estonia fans, as should a 9 UEFA Nations League games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

	Iceland 3rd	Estonia 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.4 goals	0.7 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 1 22% 2 26% 3 21% 4+ 21% There is a 69% probability that Iceland will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 51% 1 34% 2 11% 3 4+ There is a 51% probability that Estonia will fail to score

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+31 Iceland have scored 31% more goals at home than predicted	-1 Estonia’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.8 average goals scored	0.7 average goals scored
	1.8 conceded	2.3 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

40%

better

ISL

EST

view stats

Games scored	15		10
Failed to score	5		10
Scored first	11		6
Goals scored	29		14
Avg. goals scored	1.5		0.7
Avg. shots per game	7		5
Avg. shots per goal	5		8
Conversion rate for	20		13
Avg. XG for	1.1		0.7
KickOff rating		+40%

11%

better

ISL

EST

view stats

Games conceded	17		18
Clean sheets	3		2
Conceded first	9		12
Goals conceded	42		44
Avg. goals conceded	2.1		2.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	12		13
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		6
Conversion rate against	17%		17%
Avg. XG against	1.6		2.5
KickOff rating		+11%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Iceland v Estonia will show here when available.

Iceland UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
73	28	13	13
A Gunnarsson	D Joksimovic	D Joksimovic	A Gunnarsson

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Gunnarsson MID	82	5	4	12 1
D Joksimovic MID	75	28	13	9 -
S Ingason DEF	65	4		12 -
J Thorsteinsson FWD	54	6	8	9 -
V Pálsson DEF	53	5	1	6 -
H Magnússon DEF	52	2	2	6 -
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MID	44	6	5	10 -
M Anderson FWD	38	2	3	4 -
S Thórdarson MID	36	1	1	6 -
A Sigurdsson FWD	36	2	1	2 -
H Hermannsson DEF	33			1 -
M Ellertsson MID	31	2	2	3 -
H Haraldsson MID	30	3	4	6 -
H Valdimarsson GLK	23			1 -
O Óskarsson FWD	18	9	1	2 -
L Tómasson DEF	16	1	1	5 -
E Ólafsson GLK	15			1 -
K Hlynsson MID	13	1		1 -
A Baldursson MID	13			1 -
D Þórhallsson DEF	10			-
B Willumsson FWD	10	1		1 -
K Ingason MID	9			-
A Einarsson GLK	2			-
A Benediktsson GLK				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
28	26	13	14
D Joksimovic	D Joksimovic	D Joksimovic	J Thorsteinsson

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
D Joksimovic MID	28	26	13	4
O Óskarsson FWD	9	18	1	4
J Thorsteinsson FWD	6	20	8	14
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MID	6	12	5	7
A Gunnarsson MID	5	6	4
V Pálsson DEF	5	15	1	1
S Ingason DEF	4	5		1
H Haraldsson MID	3	9	4	7
H Magnússon DEF	2	3	2	1
M Anderson FWD	2	4	3	3
A Sigurdsson FWD	2	11	1	3
M Ellertsson MID	2	5	2	3
S Thórdarson MID	1	2	1	1
L Tómasson DEF	1	3	1	1
K Hlynsson MID	1	2
B Willumsson FWD	1	2
H Hermannsson DEF		1
D Þórhallsson DEF		3

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1943	68	243
S Ingason	S Ingason	V Pálsson

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Ingason DEF	1943	68	187
V Pálsson DEF	1786	62	243
H Magnússon DEF	1154	40	115
H Haraldsson MID	1132	41	108
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MID	1030	42	71
A Gunnarsson MID	804	29	86
S Thórdarson MID	712	22	57
D Joksimovic MID	697	31	116
H Hermannsson DEF	657	29	45
J Thorsteinsson FWD	638	37	129
H Valdimarsson GLK	552	1	8
E Ólafsson GLK	429	1	6
A Sigurdsson FWD	391	14	76
M Ellertsson MID	329	20	64
L Tómasson DEF	283	15	39
O Óskarsson FWD	267	2	44
M Anderson FWD	258	35	75
K Hlynsson MID	150	6	16
A Baldursson MID	143	5	16
D Þórhallsson DEF	93	4	11
B Willumsson FWD	81	2	25
A Einarsson GLK	47
K Ingason MID	13	1	3

Estonia UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
76	28	28	24
K Mets	M Poom	M Poom	K Mets

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
K Mets DEF	80		2	24 -
H Anier FWD	78	18	3	13 -
M Käit MID	57	8	3	8 -
K Hein GLK	44			2 -
M Kuusk DEF	39			7 -
M Paskotsi DEF	39	1		8 -
M Miller MID	34	1	1	12 1
M Poom MID	33	28	28	2 -
R Peetson DEF	25	2	1	6 -
M Soomets MID	22		2	4 -
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	19		2	2 -
M Ainsalu MID	19		2	1 -
K Palumets MID	18	1	3	5 -
A Tamm FWD	18	2	1	3 -
F Liivak DEF	17	2		2 -
M Igonen GLK	13			-
R Saarma FWD	13	1	1	1 -
P Kristal MID	12		1	2 -
E Tougjas DEF	9			-
J Saliste DEF	8			1 -
K Vallner GLK	5			1 -
T Tammik DEF	2	1		-
K. Mustmaa FWD	2			-
M Mannilaan FWD	2			-
M. Skvortsov MID				-
S. Alamaa FWD				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
28	18	28	4
M Poom	H Anier	M Poom	M Käit

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Poom MID	28	4	28	4
H Anier FWD	18	18	3	2
M Käit MID	8	11	3	4
R Peetson DEF	2	5	1
A Tamm FWD	2	6	1	3
F Liivak DEF	2	2		1
M Paskotsi DEF	1	2
M Miller MID	1	1	1	1
K Palumets MID	1	2	3	3
R Saarma FWD	1	2	1
T Tammik DEF	1
K Mets DEF		2	2	1
M Kuusk DEF				1
M Soomets MID			2
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF		1	2	4
M Ainsalu MID		2	2	2
P Kristal MID			1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1966	70	180
K Mets	M Käit	M Käit

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
K Mets DEF	1966	37	129
K Hein GLK	1280	1	16
M Paskotsi DEF	1140	34	94
M Käit MID	1102	70	180
M Kuusk DEF	974	35	116
R Peetson DEF	461	31	78
M Poom MID	393	20	40
M Schjönning-Larsen DEF	377	10	37
M Soomets MID	370	35	65
H Anier FWD	311	9	47
M Miller MID	311	23	53
M Ainsalu MID	299	11	37
K Palumets MID	267	17	38
M Igonen GLK	197		2
J Saliste DEF	137	13	21
E Tougjas DEF	103	4	10
A Tamm FWD	90	7	46
P Kristal MID	80	7	22
F Liivak DEF	72	8	28
R Saarma FWD	52	6	13
K Vallner GLK	50
K. Mustmaa FWD	8	1	1