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Croatia v Spain : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 6th Oct, 19:45 BST, Stadion Poljud, Split

Luis De la Fuente Castillo pays counterpart Slaven Bilić a visit on Tuesday evening in the UEFA Nations League, as their Spain and Croatia sides go head to head at the Stadion Poljud. Statistics drive the predictions below for seventeen markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and unique league tables. Odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to find out more.


Best Tip: Spain to win

We could well see a packed Stadion Poljud on Tuesday evening but, unfortunately, we predict most of those in attendance will be coming away disappointed. The statistics below, including head-to-head (H2H) records and recent form, are all pointing towards an away win in the win / draw / win market, with visitors Spain getting the better of hosts Croatia. An inquest will follow for home gaffer Slaven Bilić but, in the meantime, we'd strongly recommend making the most of best bookmaker odds of 1.33 to back the away win.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Explore the winning strategies and tips from expert correct score tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Croatia
10%
8.50-
Draw
15%
6.25-
Spain
75%
1.27-
Spain 2-0
10%
8.00-
Spain 2-1
9%
9.00
6%
-
Spain 3-0
9%
9.00
10%
-
Spain 3-1
8%
10.00
9%
-
Spain 1-0
8%
10.00
18%
-
Draw 1-1
7%
12.00
26%
-
Spain 4-0
6%
13.00
24%
-
Spain 4-1
5%
15.00
21%
-
Draw 2-2
4%
19.00
12%
-
Spain 3-2
4%
21.00-
Spain 5-0
3%
23.00
32%
-
Croatia 2-1
3%
23.00
21%
-
Spain 5-1
3%
26.00
24%
-
Draw 0-0
3%
23.00
35%
-
Croatia 1-0
3%
26.00
37%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
1.44
8%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
31%
2.70
15%
-
Home 1st Goal
38%
3.25
13%
-
Away 1st Goal
60%
1.33
5%
-
No 1st Goal
1%
21.00
35%
-
BTTS - Yes
55%
1.73-
BTTS - No
45%
2.00-
BTTS - Home Win
6%
13.00
30%
-
BTTS - Draw
12%
7.00
17%
-
BTTS - Away Win
37%
2.50
13%
-
Home/draw
25%
3.75
43%
-
Away/draw
90%
1.08
3%
-
Home/away
85%
1.13
3%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
87%
1.13
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
13%
6.00
20%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
48%
2.10
12%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
52%
1.67
9%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
29%
3.50
13%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
71%
1.29
6%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
15%
6.50
19%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
85%
1.11
3%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
97%
1.02
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
3%
21.00
24%
-
Home DNB
20%
7.00
40%
-
Away DNB
85%
1.10
6%
-
Croatia win to nil
4%
17.00
31%
-
Spain win to nil
38%
2.38
10%
-
Croatia / Croatia
6%
15.00
25%
-
Croatia / Spain
5%
17.00
11%
-
Croatia / Draw
4%
21.00
11%
-
Draw / Croatia
4%
19.00
27%
-
Draw / Spain
19%
4.33-
Draw / Draw
9%
9.50
27%
-
Spain / Croatia
2%
41.00-
Spain / Spain
47%
1.80
14%
-
Spain / Draw
4%
19.00
27%
-
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Correct score form
Croatia 3RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
2-0
7-0
-2
or more
1-0
-1
goal
0-0
1-1
1-1
1-1
2-2
x
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-1
+1
goal
2-0
3-0
3-0
3-1
4-0
5-0
5-1
+2
or more
2-0
2-0
3-1
4-1
4-2
7-0
-2
or more
2-1
-1
goal
0-0
x
1-0
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-1
2-1
3-2
+1
goal
3-0
3-1
4-0
5-1
7-0
+2
or more
Spain 1ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
2-0
-2
or more
-1
goal
0-0
0-0
0-0
2-2
2-2
x
1-0
1-0
1-0
1-0
2-1
3-2
+1
goal
2-0
3-0
3-1
3-1
4-0
4-1
6-0
7-1
+2
or more
-2
or more
-1
goal
0-0
0-0
0-0
1-1
2-2
x
1-0
1-0
2-1
3-2
+1
goal
2-0
2-0
3-0
3-0
3-1
3-1
4-0
4-0
4-0
4-1
6-0
+2
or more
Correct score head to head (H2H)
League games at Croatia since 2012
5-3
ESP + 2
or more
1-0
ESP + 1
goal
0-0
x
2-1
3-2
CRO + 1
goal
CRO + 2
or more
League games at Spain since 2018
ESP + 2
or more
ESP + 1
goal
x
CRO + 1
goal
3-0
4-1
6-0
CRO + 2
or more
Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.7 is fairly strong for Spain in their clash with Croatia, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 18 consecutive UEFA Nations League matches.

Croatia 3rd Spain 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.9
goals
2.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of Croatia scoring 1 goal or less
1
18%
2
25%
3
22%
4
15%
5+
20%
There is a 82% probability that Spain will score 2 or more goals in this match
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-5
Croatia’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+21
Spain have scored 21% more goals when away than predicted
1.9
average goals scored
2.3
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
0.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
Croatia
PG (predicted goals)
Spain
0.9
2.7
Attack rating
CRO
ESP
15%
better
view stats
Games scored16
17
Failed to score4
3
Scored first10
18
Goals scored40
48
Avg. goals scored2
2.4
Avg. shots per game12
14
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for17
17
Avg. XG for2
2.3
KickOff rating
+15%
Defence rating
CRO
ESP
58%
better
view stats
Games conceded14
7
Clean sheets6
13
Conceded first9
0
Goals conceded32
9
Avg. goals conceded1.6
0.5
Avg. shots/game conceded9
5
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
10
Conversion rate against18%
10%
Avg. XG against1.3
0.5
KickOff rating
+58%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Croatia v Spain will show here when available.

Croatia UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
129383221
L ModricI PerisicI PerisicI Perisic
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Modric MID1462322
10
-
I Perisic FWD1453832
20
1
A Kramaric FWD118359
3
-
M Kovacic MID11146
16
-
M Pasalic MID89126
4
-
D Livakovic GLK79
4
1
N Vlasic MID67113
3
-
J Gvardiol DEF5341
4
-
A Budimir FWD4375
7
-
J Sutalo DEF37
-
L Majer MID3796
1
-
J Stanisic DEF365
5
-
L Sučić MID231
1
-
M Baturina MID2321
2
-
M Pongracic  DEF22
3
-
M Pašalić FWD1923
-
K Jakic MID1721
1
-
P. Sučić MID1511
3
-
I Matanovic FWD1321
-
P Musa FWD1321
-
F Ivanovic FWD1021
1
-
L. Vušković DEF71
2
-
D Kotarski GLK4
-
I Smolcic DEF2
-
D Beljo FWD2
-
J Misic MID1
-
Spain UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
67311411
U SimónM OyarzabalD OlmoRodri
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Rodri MID7142
11
-
U Simón GLK67
3
-
M Oyarzabal FWD623112
3
-
D Olmo MID591214
3
-
A Laporte DEF5521
6
-
M Merino MID52123
3
-
F Ruiz MID51711
5
-
Pedri MID5064
1
-
L Yamal FWD34811
3
-
M Cucurella  DEF3314
1
-
R Normand DEF2712
9
1
M Zubimendi MID2731
1
-
Álex Baena FWD2542
3
-
Y Pino FWD2542
3
-
P. Cubarsí Paredes DEF213
1
-
D Raya GLK13
1
-
D. Huijsen DEF71
1
-
F. López Marín MID72
-
M Pubill DEF4
-
F García DEF2
-
V. Muñoz Villanueva FWD21
-
J Martínez GLK1
-